🌡️ Climate Change Threatens India’s Milk Production: New Study Warns of 10% Yield Decline Due to Heat Stress

New Delhi, July 7, 2025 — A newly published global study has raised urgent concerns for the Indian dairy sector, revealing that climate change may reduce milk yields by up to 10% in the coming decades due to rising temperatures and humidity. For India—the world’s largest milk producer—this could have a severe impact on rural livelihoods, dairy cooperatives, and national food security.

Published in the journal Science Advances, the study focused on advanced dairy farms in Israel but has broad implications for heat-prone nations like India, Brazil, and Pakistan. Researchers from Tel Aviv University and the University of Chicago found that milk production drops sharply when “wet-bulb” temperatures (a combined measure of heat and humidity) cross 26°C. The impacts can last over ten days, leading to daily yield reductions of up to 10% per cow.

“Climate change will have wide-ranging impacts on what we eat and drink—including our daily glass of milk,” said Dr. Eyal Frank, co-author and policy expert at the University of Chicago.
“Even with cooling systems in place, the mitigation is only partial. We need smarter technologies and better policy support.”

🐄 What This Means for Indian Dairy Farmers

While Israel’s high-tech farms utilise cooling systems like fans and mist sprayers, the study found these measures only offset about 40–50% of potential milk loss. In contrast, India’s small and medium-sized dairy farms, particularly those in humid regions, often lack the resources to install such infrastructure, making them more vulnerable to climate-driven productivity losses.

According to the study:

• Without cooling, Indian cows may face up to 4% drop in daily milk yield on extremely hot and humid days.
• With cooling, the drop may still hover around 2–2.5%, depending on the technology and region.

📉 Economic and Nutritional Fallout

A 10% drop in milk production could translate into billions of litres lost annually for India, where over 8 crore households depend on dairy as a key income source. This threatens not just dairy cooperatives but also nutrition security, especially for children and women in rural areas.

“This is a wake-up call for India’s dairy sector. Heat stress is not just an animal welfare issue—it’s an economic and nutritional crisis in the making,” said an official from the National Dairy Development Board (NDDB).

🔍 Policy and Innovation Pathways

The study calls for urgent, targeted interventions:

• Investment in low-cost cooling systems for rural farms.
• Breeding for heat-resilient dairy cattle.
• R&D to develop humidity-adapted technologies, such as wearable cooling devices or mobile misting systems.
• Infrastructure upgrades through dairy cooperatives, with support from state and central governments.

Also recommended: reducing non-climate stressors—such as overcrowding, poor ventilation, and calf separation—which exacerbate the effects of heat.

As India leads the world in milk production, the country must now also lead in building climate-resilient dairy systems.