The European Union’s fluid milk imports are expected to increase by 3.4% in 2027, reaching approximately 750,000 tonnes, as milk production in the United Kingdom is forecast to recover. The projected increase follows a decline in imports during 2026, when drought-related production challenges in the UK affected milk availability and cross-border dairy trade.
According to the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS), the recovery in UK milk supplies is expected to support higher shipments to Ireland for processing. Meanwhile, EU fluid milk exports are forecast to decline as weaker demand from major trading partners, particularly China and the United Kingdom, weighs on international sales.
UK Milk Production Recovery to Support EU Imports
The United Kingdom remains the dominant external supplier of fluid milk to the European Union, accounting for more than 98% of imports from outside the bloc. Most of these shipments originate in Northern Ireland and are directed towards processing facilities in Ireland.
USDA FAS forecasts that EU fluid milk imports will reach 750,000 tonnes in 2027, representing a 3.4% increase compared with the low levels expected in 2026.
In contrast, imports during 2026 are projected to decline by 12.3% compared with 2025. Reduced milk deliveries in the UK, partly attributed to drought conditions, have affected the availability of milk for cross-border trade.
The expected recovery in British milk production could therefore improve raw milk availability for Irish processors, supporting their manufacturing requirements and regional dairy supply chains.
EU Fluid Milk Exports Expected to Decline in 2027
While imports are projected to recover, the EU’s fluid milk export outlook remains comparatively weaker.
EU27 fluid milk exports are forecast to decline by 2.7% in 2027 compared with 2026, primarily due to weaker demand from major international markets.
China and the UK are expected to remain among the principal destinations for European fluid milk. However, changing purchasing patterns and declining demand in these established markets could limit export growth.
According to USDA FAS, EU27 fluid milk exports are expected to reach approximately 1.13 million tonnes in 2026, an increase of 2.4% compared with 2025.
Despite the projected annual growth, export performance has shown mixed trends across international markets.
Asian Markets Provide New Export Opportunities
Between January and July 2026, EU fluid milk exports increased by 5.2% compared with the corresponding period in 2025.
However, shipments to two important destinations declined. Exports to China fell by 1.3%, while shipments to the UK decreased by 5%.
Stronger demand from other Asian markets helped offset these declines, highlighting the growing importance of regional diversification for European dairy exporters.
South Korea recorded a 1% increase in imports of EU fluid milk, while shipments to the Philippines rose by 40%. Exports to Vietnam increased by 37% during the same period.
These developments indicate that emerging Asian markets could provide additional opportunities for European dairy businesses seeking to diversify their export destinations and reduce dependence on traditional trading partners.
Price Competitiveness Remains a Major Challenge
Despite opportunities in Asian markets, European dairy exporters continue to face competitive pressures in international trade.
USDA FAS noted that the European Union is the least price-competitive among major milk-exporting regions. This limits its ability to secure significant additional export volumes, particularly when competing suppliers offer more attractive prices.
Price competitiveness remains an important consideration in the global dairy trade, where production costs, farmgate milk prices, processing expenses and transportation costs influence international purchasing decisions.
For European processors, maintaining export market share will require balancing production costs with competitive pricing while responding to changing demand patterns.
Outlook for the European Dairy Trade
The contrasting outlook for EU fluid milk imports and exports highlights changing dynamics within the European dairy market.
The anticipated recovery in UK milk production could strengthen milk availability for Irish processors and support regional supply chains in 2027. At the same time, weaker demand from China and the UK could create challenges for European exporters.
Growing shipments to South Korea, the Philippines and Vietnam demonstrate the potential of Asian markets to support future trade opportunities.
For the wider dairy industry, developments in UK milk production, European processing demand and international price competitiveness will remain important factors influencing fluid milk trade throughout 2027.
