Milk supplies are falling sharply across several European dairy regions as severe drought, extreme heatwaves and poor feed availability put increasing pressure on dairy farmers.
In drought-affected parts of Ireland, milk supplies have declined by 5–6% week-on-week, more than twice the normal seasonal rate of decline expected during this period. Similar trends are being reported across Europe, with some major dairy-producing regions experiencing even steeper reductions.
EU Milk Production Faces Growing Pressure
Processors in several European countries are reporting milk production declines significantly above normal seasonal levels. Week-on-week reductions of 8–11% have been recorded in some major EU dairy regions.
Belgium has been particularly affected, with some farmers reporting daily milk production falling by as much as 25% in recent weeks.
Extreme temperatures have also affected France, one of Europe’s leading dairy producers. Milk deliveries in the key dairy regions of Normandy and Brittany fell by 7–8% in early July compared with the same period in 2025.
Further Declines Expected
Producer associations are forecasting additional declines of 10–15% if high temperatures continue. The prolonged heat is placing considerable stress on dairy cattle, reducing productivity and making it increasingly difficult for farmers to maintain normal milk output.
The supply situation is being worsened by weak milk prices and poor forecasts for silage maize production. Reduced feed availability could increase production costs and force some farmers to reduce herd sizes.
France and Britain Also Under Pressure
Although European milk production recorded year-on-year growth during the first part of 2026, the continuing heatwave has significantly affected farms in several countries.
France’s milk production had already declined considerably in May following delayed calvings associated with the effects of bluetongue disease during 2025. The latest heat-related disruptions are adding further pressure to the country’s dairy sector.
In Britain, the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) has warned that drought conditions could lead to shortages of certain food products. Drought has been declared across large areas of England and Wales, with farmers facing growing concerns over grass and forage availability.
According to AHDB, weekly milk collections in Britain are currently running 3.5% below 2025 levels.
Feed Availability Becomes a Major Concern
The combination of drought, heat stress and declining forage production is creating a difficult operating environment for dairy farmers. Poor silage maize yields could increase reliance on purchased feed, raising production costs at a time when milk prices remain under pressure.
If the conditions persist, European dairy producers could face further reductions in milk output, potentially tightening supply across the regional market.
Outlook for the European Dairy Sector
The sharp decline in milk collections highlights the growing impact of extreme weather on European dairy production. While the sector entered 2026 with relatively strong production growth, prolonged drought and heatwaves are rapidly changing the outlook.
With further supply reductions expected in several major producing regions, market conditions could become increasingly challenging for processors, farmers and consumers in the coming months.
