After four consecutive declines that shaved 7% off the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) index, the second July auction delivered a 1.1% recovery. The upward movement was led by increased demand for whole milk powder (WMP) and skim milk powder (SMP), which rose 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively.
The Southeast Asia and Oceania regions played a key role in this rebound, lifting their overall share of GDT purchases from 25% to 34%. North Asia maintained its dominant position in butter and WMP procurement, while Southeast Asia/Oceania became the leading buyer of SMP, anhydrous milk fat (AMF), and cheddar.
š GDT Price Index Changes and Product Insights:
- WMP: +1.7% | $3,928/MT
- SMP: +2.5% | $2,785/MT
- AMF: +0.8% | $6,973/MT
- Butter: Unchanged | $7,492/MT
- Cheddar: -5.6% | $4,589/MT
- Mozzarella: -0.7% | $4,760/MT
- Lactose: -1.5% | $1,355/MT
- Wholemilk Powder: +1.7%
- Skimmilk Powder: +2.5%
Cheddar cheese was the weakest performer, dropping 5.6%, as it continued a downward trend driven by consistent global supply, particularly from the United States.
Forward contracts played a significant role in the recovery. November delivery (Contract 4) for WMP saw a 4% increase, while SMP forward pricing rose 7.5%. New Zealandās SMP continues to trade at a premium over EU-origin powder.
ā ļø Market Conditions and Global Trade Signals
Despite the short-term improvement, global dairy markets remain exposed to significant risks. Weather-related challengesāsuch as persistent dry conditions in Europeāand renewed threats of tariffs on EU dairy exports by the United States have introduced new layers of uncertainty to the global trade landscape.
With New Zealandās peak season approaching and GDT contracts aligned with spring deliveries, buyers are locking in forward positions. Farmgate milk price predictions remain steady at high levels, but the path ahead will depend heavily on the stability of the supply chain and policy developments.
