Great Britain’s milk supply continued to decline in September 2026 as dairy farmers faced rising production costs, animal health concerns and challenging forage conditions. According to figures from the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB), milk deliveries averaged 33.27 million litres per day during the month, bringing estimated monthly production to 998 million litres. The figures highlight continuing pressure on the British dairy sector, although the pace of decline moderated compared with August.
Milk Production Declines as Seasonal Conditions Improve
September milk deliveries were 26 million litres, or 2.5%, below the same month in 2025. The decline was smaller than the 4.4% year-on-year contraction recorded in August, suggesting that seasonal conditions provided some relief to dairy farmers.
Daily deliveries began September 6.6 million litres below the previous year’s level and 0.6 million litres beneath the five-year average. However, production recovered above the five-year average during the first week of the month.
For the milk year to date, covering April through October 3, supplies across Great Britain remained 2.3% below the corresponding period in 2025. The latest weekly figures, for the week ending October 3, showed deliveries declining 2.8% year on year.
The moderation in the September decline has been attributed partly to easing temperatures and the recovery of pastures following dry conditions. A shift towards autumn calving may also be helping to support milk availability.
| Milk supply indicator | September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Average daily deliveries | 33.27 million litres |
| Estimated monthly production | 998 million litres |
| Year-on-year monthly change | -2.5% |
| Reduction against September 2025 | 26 million litres |
| Milk year-to-date change | -2.3% |
| Weekly change to October 3 | -2.8% |
Source: AHDB figures reported on October 15, 2026.
Rising Production Costs Squeeze Dairy Farm Margins
Despite some improvement in milk prices during early autumn, dairy farmers continue to face increasing operating expenses. Feed costs are expected to rise amid dry conditions in important growing regions, while fuel, fertiliser and energy prices remain affected by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
The availability and cost of forage and straw are additional concerns as farmers prepare for the winter feeding period. Labour expenses are also contributing to pressure on farm profitability.
These challenges are particularly important for dairy farms because milk production depends on consistent feed availability, animal health and efficient herd management. When input costs rise faster than milk prices, farm margins can deteriorate even if production remains relatively stable.
Farmers may respond by adjusting feed rations, reviewing herd management practices or delaying investments. However, prolonged cost pressure could discourage production expansion and influence future milk deliveries.
Bluetongue Remains a Concern for Milk Output
Bluetongue continues to be a key animal health concern for the British dairy industry. The disease can affect livestock health and reproductive performance, potentially disrupting production and herd productivity.
The southwest of England may have experienced a particularly notable impact on milk output. However, reports indicate that most farmers have now vaccinated their animals, potentially helping to reduce future risks.
Continued monitoring, vaccination and appropriate veterinary management will remain important to maintaining herd health and limiting disruptions to milk production.
Production Forecast Points to Further Contraction
The latest forecast anticipates that Great Britain’s milk production will decline by 2.2% year on year during the 2026/27 milk year. This outlook suggests that the supply situation could remain challenging despite the slower rate of decline recorded in September.
Lower milk availability could affect dairy processors, cheese manufacturers, butter producers and other businesses that depend on a reliable supply of raw milk. Depending on demand and import availability, tighter supplies may also influence procurement costs and prices across dairy product categories.
For processors, effective milk sourcing and production planning will become increasingly important. Dairy farmers, meanwhile, will need to balance output targets against feed expenses, labour costs and animal health requirements.
Outlook for the British Dairy Industry
The September figures indicate that milk supply pressures have eased slightly but have not disappeared. Improving pasture conditions and seasonal changes have helped moderate the decline, while rising input costs and disease risks continue to challenge producers.
The direction of milk deliveries over the coming months will depend on weather conditions, feed availability, farm profitability and herd health. With production forecast to fall in 2026/27, the British dairy industry will need to monitor supply developments closely as farmers and processors prepare for winter and reassess their production strategies.
