Ukraine’s dairy market is facing renewed pressure, with dairy product prices potentially increasing by another 20–25% in the near future. Rising production and processing costs, expensive energy, damaged logistics infrastructure and weakening consumer purchasing power are contributing to the expected increase.
According to reports, Russian strikes on retail distribution centres and warehouses have severely disrupted established dairy supply chains. Previously, dairy processors delivered finished products directly to major retail warehouses. Damage to these facilities has forced companies and retailers to reorganise deliveries and absorb additional transportation and operational expenses.
Retailers Face Higher Distribution Costs
The destruction of distribution infrastructure has created significant financial losses across the dairy supply chain. Supermarkets may attempt to recover the costs of direct deliveries, infrastructure damage and logistical changes by passing the additional burden on to consumers.
Industry experts estimate that dairy products could become 20–25% more expensive in the coming months. Such an increase would place further pressure on household budgets, particularly as Ukrainian consumers are already dealing with lower purchasing power and the continued emigration of the population.
The Milk Producers Association has warned that higher retail prices could result in reduced dairy consumption. Lower demand may create additional difficulties for processors and farmers, who are already operating under challenging economic conditions.
European Financing Could Support the Market
The Ukrainian dairy market may require long-term preferential financing from European partners to stabilise retail conditions and support business continuity.
Financial assistance could help dairy companies repair infrastructure, modernise processing facilities, improve logistics and maintain production despite higher energy and operating costs. Without such support, the sector may continue to experience a combination of rising prices, falling demand and reduced investment.
Milk Prices Continue to Increase
By the end of August 2026, the average price of pasteurised drinking milk with fat content of up to 2.6% had reached 50.55 UAH/kg. This represented a 3.7% monthly increase.
The cheapest packaged milk was offered by Adalis at 41.99 UAH/kg, while Yagotynske remained the most expensive at 59.38 UAH/kg.
|
Product |
Average price |
Monthly change |
|---|---|---|
|
Pasteurised drinking milk |
50.55 UAH/kg |
+3.7% |
|
2.5% kefir |
59.44 UAH/kg |
-0.1% |
|
15% sour cream |
195.32 UAH/kg |
— |
|
Drinking yogurt |
130.75 UAH/kg |
+3.79% |
|
9% sour-milk cheese |
292.17 UAH/kg |
-1% |
Mixed Trends in Sour-Milk Products
Prices for sour-milk products have developed differently depending on the product category and packaging format.
The average price of 2.5% kefir declined marginally by 0.1% during the month, but remained 7% higher than a year earlier. Drinking yogurt recorded a stronger monthly increase of 3.79%, reaching 130.75 UAH/kg.
Among drinking yogurt brands, Halychyna was listed at 135.99 UAH/kg, while Chudo was the most expensive at 165.75 UAH/kg. Meanwhile, 9% sour-milk cheese declined by 1% over the month to 292.17 UAH/kg.
Butter Prices Remain Under Pressure
The average price of domestically produced butter with 72.5–73% fat content stood at 591.45 UAH/kg.
For a 180-gram package, Ashan was the cheapest Ukrainian producer at 477.22 UAH/kg, while Ferma was priced at 763.89 UAH/kg. Imported President butter cost approximately 1,120 UAH/kg, making it almost 89% more expensive than Ukrainian alternatives.
Butter prices are not expected to decline at the beginning of autumn. Although manufacturers have warehouse stocks, the lower price limit has stabilised, and producers are maintaining prices through promotional offers.
A major factor supporting butter prices is stronger demand and higher prices in export markets. European raw milk production has declined, creating expectations of further increases in international butter prices during the autumn.
Outlook for Ukrainian Dairy
Ukraine’s dairy sector is likely to remain under pressure as supply-chain disruptions, higher production costs and weaker consumer demand continue to affect the market. Retail prices may rise further unless logistics are restored and financial support becomes available.
The expected price increase could protect processors from rising costs in the short term, but it may also reduce household consumption and weaken demand for dairy products. Long-term financing, infrastructure recovery and improved supply-chain resilience will be essential for stabilising the sector.
